Weather update: cyclones moving away from Vanuatu– but still intensifying

US Navy JWTC satellite image

There has been some good news about the two potential south-west Pacific cyclones since our last update.

However, we’re not completely in the clear yet: all global weather prediction models are now “in agreement” about both systems now, which means they are both likely to develop further. They are both very slow-moving, and are still intensifying.

The good news, at least for now, is that the system to the north-east of Vanuatu is now less likely to form before Thursday, however it is now a named tropical depression TD09. The Fiji Meteorological Service says that there is a moderate chance it will become a cyclone on Thursday, but a high chance of it forming on Friday, further from Vanuatu. Vanuatu Meteorological Services offers a slightly different prognosis: it says the chance of it forming near Vanuatu on Thursday or Friday is low to moderate.

The as-yet unnamed tropical depression in the Coral Sea south of Solomon Islands looks less likely to impact Vanuatu than previous reports, according to Vanuatu, Fiji, NZ and US Navy meteorological services.

We will give another update again tomorrow evening.